System Dynamics Approach for Urban Transportation System to Reduce Fuel Consumption and Fuel Emissions

Abstract

AbstractThe world today is facing a severe environmental crisis. High fuel consumption by the various categories of vehicles in urban areas causes fuel emissions, worsening environmental conditions. This study aims to investigate and analyze the scenario-based System Dynamics (SD) models to reduce fuel consumption and fuel emissions. In this study, we built an SD model, including the factors influencing the transportation system, energy system, emissions system, and environment system. A broad range of policy scenarios was constructed for Chennai city, India, which considered criteria such as model split, fuel consumption, and fuel emissions. The SD simulation-based forecasting models are built considering three scenarios, such as do-nothing scenario, do-minimum scenario, and desirable scenario to project the SD parameters for the horizon year 2030. The scenarios of augmenting the proportion of public transportation and simultaneously restricting the proportion of private transportation by a model split of 10%:90% in the do minimum scenario and 20%:80% in the desirable scenario led to substantial reduction in the number of vehicles plying on the city roads. This has eventually resulted in pursuing a significant reduction in fuel consumption and fuel emissions. The results from SD simulation findings have led to the development of policies to regulate increasing fuel consumption and fuel emissions, based on the estimated figures.KeywordsUrban transportation systemSystem dynamics (SD)Scenario analysisVehicular fuel consumptionVehicular fuel emission