A Comparative Study on the Sustainability of Public and Private Road Transportation Systems in an Urban Area: Current and Future Scenarios

Abstract

AbstractTransportation system is the fastest growing consumer of fossil fuels and the fastest growing source of fuel emissions. The negative impacts of road transport-related emissions on urban sustainability are huge. Hence there is an immediate need to reduce vehicular emissions by implementing mitigation measures. This study is intended to formulate vehicular consumption and emissions-related mitigation measures by conducting an extensive study on the comparison of both public and private transportation systems. System Dynamic (SD) models are built to forecast the vehicle population, fuel consumption, and fuel emission levels by the vehicles in the urban environment for current and future scenarios. In addition to the current scenario model (do-minimum scenario model), two other scenario models (partial-efforts scenario model and desirable scenario model) are built using the SD method to forecast the future levels of vehicle population, fuel consumption, and fuel emissions. These SD models are built by augmenting the growth rate of the public transportation system (public buses) and simultaneously restricting the growth rate of the private transportation system (two-wheelers and cars). When compared to the do-minimum scenario model, the partial-efforts scenario model and desirable scenario model results indicated a significant reduction in fuel consumption and fuel emission levels. Finally, policies are formulated for mitigating the vehicular consumptions and emissions in line with the context of achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).KeywordsPublic transportPrivate transportSystem dynamics (SD)Scenario analysisSustainable development goals (SDG)