System-Dynamic simulation of the Cholera spread

Abstract

One of the frequently used modern epidemiological methods is the simulation of disease spread. We used AnyLogic simulation. System-dynamic model is presented here. It may be used for strategic modelling of the epidemiological situation and reflects the global trends. During the model construction, we take into account the specific cholera features, such as the pathways of infection transmission, the course duration and the duration of the incubation (latent) period, the possibility of vaccination, etc. Different cholera strains correspond to different parameter values. Anylogic makes it possible to visualize the epidemic spread in movement at various values of the model parameters and it looks like cartoon. It also gives the possibility to select and clarify the parameter values. For convenience, when building the model, we used sliders. They help in the selection of parameters to change quickly the values of the model parameters, including the effect of vaccination on the process of the disease spread. We were able to compare the results obtained by simulating the disease spread with specific data on real cholera spread. Our results of the study indicate that the used model can be effectively applied for forecasting. By analyzing the results of modeling with varying parameters, it is possible to predict the dynamics of the cholera spread.