Abstract
One of the frequently used modern epidemiological methods is the Simulation of disease spread. We used AnyLogic simulation. During the model construction, we take into account the specific cholera features. They are: the pathways of infection transmission, the course duration and the duration of the incubation (latent) period, the possibility of vaccination, etc.Two approaches are presented here: system-dynamic model and agentbased one. The system-dynamic model is used for strategic modelling of the epidemiological situation, it reflects the global trends. The agent-based approach allows describing the individual behaviour of each agent person, who independently form events conditioning transitions between states.Used together they make it possible to reflect different aspects of the epidemiological process development. The combination of these two models gives more possibilities for their application in a real situation: give the opportunity to impose tactical nuances on strategic modelling.
Highlights
Research epidemiological methods are quite diverse [1, 2]
We considered two approaches: system-dynamic and agent-based one
Individuals are not distinguishable, the peculiarities of their behavior are not taken into account, and this model is more intended for strategic modeling of the epidemiological situation
Summary
Research epidemiological methods are quite diverse [1, 2]. They are classic methods, such as statistical analysis, like trend and forecast [3, 4], as well as modern methods, like simulation and so on. The ways of transmission of cholera infection by contact, water and food were taken into account to build this model of cholera spread. We considered two approaches: system-dynamic and agent-based one Used together they make it possible to reflect different aspects of the epidemiological process development. Individuals are not distinguishable, the peculiarities of their behavior are not taken into account, and this model is more intended for strategic modeling of the epidemiological situation It may reflect global trends, for example, one of the most important in the spread of cholera feature - the flows of infection importation. In contrast to the system dynamics model, the agent-based model is individual-oriented It allows taking into account the behavior and psychology of people (attitudes towards travel, vaccinations during an epidemic, preventive measures to reduce the risks of infection)
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