System analysis of power consumption by nonferrous metallurgy enterprises on the basis of rank modeling of individual technocenosis castes

Abstract

To increase energy efficiency at non-ferrous metallurgy enterprises, an integrated system approach for estimation of electricity consumption is needed. The paper presents the results of a rank analysis of the power consumption of individual castes of process equipment on the basis of an integrated energy survey of the enterprise. A methodology for constructing mathematical models for calculating and predicting electric power consumption for all castes of the ranked H-distribution of technocenosis has been developed. For the first time, according to the established regularity of the H-distribution, a mathematical model for predicting power consumption has been developed, including a quantitative analysis of the energy characteristics of consumers by individual castes of technocenosis. A retrospective check of the relative error in the prediction of electricity consumption showed that for the model it does not exceed 2%, which is significantly lower than the relative error of the prediction for a number of models of other types. The received model is recommended for use in the automated system of dispatching control of power consumption for the purposes of short-term forecasting of electric power consumption at industrial enterprises of non-ferrous metallurgy.