System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of Infection Safety Human Caused by COVID-19 Coronavirus Strains

Abstract

The purpose of research is to develop models characterizing the "Cell–Virus–Habitat" system. Methods. The ability of coronaviruses to exit the cell without its apoptosis is an important factor providing the possibility of moderate infection. A description of the complete 2019-nCoV gene can be found in the GenBank Virus Genome bank: MN908947.3. Currently, information about the epidemiology, clinical features, prevention and treatment of this disease is being studied by scientists all over the world. Theoretical approaches in the study were based on the theory of virology, system analysis, differential integral calculus and probability theory. The materials were immunogram indicators for the period 2020-2021. According to studies of the effect of coronavirus infection on residents of the Perm Region. Data on the activity of the coronavirus and the number of sick residents were taken from open sources. Data on the number of residents living in the Perm Region were taken from the population census. The structure of the SARS-CoV-2 genome is reflected in the GenBank data-base: MN908947.3. The SARS-CoV-2 mutation tracker was studied by the repository: https://users.math.msu.edu/users/weig/SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Tracker.html . Results: the "Cell–Virus–Habitat" model was developed and investigated; a system of differential empirical equations characterizing changes in immunogram parameters among underage and child-aged residents of the Perm Region was constructed and investigated; a system of Kolmogorov equations describing the dynamics of the pandemic in the Perm Region was constructed and investigated. Conclusion. One of the consequences of a new coronavirus infection may be a change in the immune system of the human population. A detailed analysis of the immunological status of various racial groups, different ages and gender characteristics under the influence of a new coronavirus infection is currently poorly understood.