Abstract
Significance The meeting would be the two leaders' first in eleven years, as the culmination of a meeting of their defence ministers and intelligence chiefs in Moscow in late December and talks between foreign ministers, again with Russian participation, which Erdogan says will come next. The two states, bitter antagonists during Syria's civil war, began a process of rapprochement that gathered momentum in mid-2022. Before the latest developments, this process had stalled, and there are signs it may do so again. Impacts Iran will not intervene heavily in Syrian-Turkish rapprochement owing to its limited interest in northern Syria. Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will try to squeeze Turkish-backed opposition forces in the north. US forces will remain in eastern Syria, as illustrated by the recent establishment of a new military outpost near Raqqa.
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