Abstract
Near-fault ground motion is a key to understanding the seismic hazard along a fault and is challenged by the ground motion prediction equation approach. This paper presents a developed stochastic-slip-scaling source model, a spatial stochastic model with slipped area scaling toward the ground motion simulation. We considered the near-fault ground motion of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, the most massive near-fault disastrous earthquake, proposed by Ma et al. (2001) as a reference for validation. Three scenario source models including the developed stochastic-slip-scaling source model, mean-slip model and characteristic-asperity model were used for the near-fault ground motion examination. We simulated synthetic ground motion through 3D waveforms and validated these simulations using observed data and the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for Taiwan earthquakes. The mean slip and characteristic asperity scenario source models over-predicted the near-fault ground motion. The stochastic-slip-scaling model proposed in this paper is more accurately approximated to the near-fault motion compared with the GMPE and observations. This is the first study to incorporate slipped-area scaling in a stochastic slip model. The proposed model can generate scenario earthquakes for predicting ground motion.
Highlights
Ground-motion prediction is crucial for seismic hazard assessments
The results indicated that the stochastic-slip-scaling model is the model most consistent with the observations and the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE), for near-fault motion
This study proposes a spatial stochastic model with slip scaling for ground-motion simulation
Summary
Ground-motion prediction is crucial for seismic hazard assessments. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), widely adopted to determine ground motion, are acquired through regression analyses of large ground-motion data collections from past earthquakes. Deterministic ground-motion prediction, prediction using earthquake scenario simulations, is attracting much research interest To reliably simulate these scenarios requires comprehensive knowledge of fault models, especially knowledge of the geometry and slip heterogeneity of finite faults (Liao et al 2016; Wen et al 2016). Irikura and Miyake (2011) developed a recipe for predicting strong ground motions by characterizing the source model for future crustal earthquakes. They suggested that the slip distribution on a finite fault is the major concern in the forward simulation of earthquake scenarios. We considered finite-fault slip-heterogeneity scaling to constrain the near-fault ground motion in the simulation. The results indicated that the stochastic-slip-scaling model is the model most consistent with the observations and the GMPE, for near-fault motion
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