Synergistic emission reductions and health effects of energy transitions under carbon neutrality target

Abstract

China's climate and environmental problems remained prominent. Energy transition was the key to improve climate and pollution, and it was at a critical period. Previous studies mostly focused on the impact of climate policies on the reduction of air pollutants and the environmental health impacts of individual sector or pathway policies. Thus, focusing on the synergistic abatement of CO2 and air pollutants and health effects of energy transition in carbon neutrality was significant for building beautiful and healthy China. LEAP-HEA model was constructed to project energy demand, CO2 and air pollutants, and assess energy transition's environmental health effects from 2020 to 2060. LMDI model was adopted to decompose the abatement contribution. Synergistic assessment index was used to estimate the coordinated abatement effects. Cost-effectiveness of energy transition and regional heterogeneity of PM2.5 toxicity were not considered. The results indicated: (1) energy demand would decrease and structure would be optimized significantly under deep energy transition scenario. (2) Deep energy transition could promote earlier realization of carbon neutrality. It would contribute significantly to CO2 and air pollutants abatement with strong synergistic effects. (3) Energy transition would reduce health risks with large economic benefits. Recommendations were proposed based on the conclusions.