SWOT analysis to assess the threat of illegal arms trafficking on the Ukrainian border with the European Union countries in the context of the war

Abstract

The problem of combating threats of illegal trafficking of arms, ammunition and explosives at the border points of Ukraine with the countries of the European Union EU has become urgent under martial law. The aim of the study was to develop an optimal strategy for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (hereinafter referred to as "SBGSU") to combat threats of illegal arms trafficking at border points with EU countries under martial law. A comprehensive methodological approach combining the following scientific methods was used: comparative method, systems analysis method, structural-functional method, survey and group expert evaluation method, classification method and determination of numerical characteristics. A model was developed to assess the threat of illegal arms trafficking on the border of Ukraine with the EU countries under martial law based on SWOT-analysis. As a result, the factors of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, which exist in the Ukrainian border guard agency, were identified. It is concluded that the results of this study cannot be applied to the border areas of Ukraine with such countries as the Russian Federation, Belarus and Moldova.