Abstract
Significance President Donald Trump's re-election prospects have been blighted by COVID-19 and its economic fallout. To win, he must hold onto the states he won narrowly in 2016, in the Midwest and Florida, while fighting off Democratic challenges in some traditionally Republican states. Impacts There are legal mechanisms in place to manage a contested election result. Biden will need suburban and female voters and will likely see strong minority and urban support. Trump will likely see support from male, older and working-class voters, especially in the Midwest and South.
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