Sustainable rural livelihoods in the face of climate-induced hazards in Pakistan: Nexus of coping mechanisms, determinants, and benefits

Abstract

This study comprehensively examined the climate change susceptibility hazards and the subsequent adaptation strategies adopted by the farming community in Punjab, Pakistan, to mitigate the adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. Data were collected through a household survey involving 1080 respondents, using a multistage random sampling approach. Binary Logistic Regression was employed to discern the determinants driving the adaptation strategies. Additionally, the benefits derived from these adaptation measures were quantified, using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The impact of climate change on rural livelihoods was found to be significant, leading to substantial degeneration. Farmers' income from crops, livestock products, machinery, tube wells, orchards, and vegetables have been adversely affected. The adaptation strategies employed to mitigate these adverse effects encompassed crop diversification, divergence of livestock populations, seeking non-farm income sources, adjusting herd composition, utilizing governmental subsidies, adopting new animal breeds and crop varieties, selling livestock animals for sustenance, accessing loans from governments/banks, sharing labour during years of climate change, communal forage sharing, and insuring crops and livestock. These adaptation strategies are intricately influenced by socioeconomic, demographic, agronomic, and climate-related information, and forecasting parameters as well. Notably, adapters experienced fewer impacts of climate change compared to non-adapters. To bolster resilience, it is imperative to introduce climate-resilient crop varieties and animal breeds. Additionally, enhancing financial access for farmers is crucial, necessitating targeted strategies devised by the government to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. This study emphasized the urgency for targeted and comprehensive strategies to navigate rural communities towards sustainable livelihoods in an evolving climate landscape.