Sustainable metal resource management—the need for industrial development: efficiency improvement demands on metal resource management to enable a (sustainable) supply until 2050

Abstract

This article will investigate just how much the manufacturing industry will have to improve the efficiency in use of non-renewable metal resources in a sustainable way from now until the year 2050, if industry is to provide material wealth to an ever growing world population with an ever growing demand for wealth. Given this development, the future demand for reduction in the use of the metals aluminum, tin, copper, silver and zinc by industry is projected forward to the year 2050. Scenarios determining pool dynamics include three scenarios for primary production: a projection of the present trend (exponential growth), a 2% extraction scenario and a no extraction scenario. The calculations show that the best long-term strategy for industry is a limitation to extraction, as, for example, suggested by the 2% extraction scenario. Further, the role of recycling in preserving the pool of a resource in use is emphasized. By varying the recycling rate, pool sizes for aluminum, tin, copper, silver and zinc are also projected forward to the year 2050. Recycling scenarios in this context are the present trend projection (exponential growth), full recycling and no recycling. The calculations clearly show that without an intensified focus on recycling, we cannot hope to fulfil even the most modest ambitions for sustainability in the use of metal resources. The paper goes on to investigate feasible courses of action, including trends in product design, like miniaturization, extended product life, substitution and design for recycling. It is argued that the best product-related strategy for industry is miniaturization. The paper does not deal solely with the issue of resource depletion, but rather with the industrial improvements in resource use needed to enable a continued (sustainable) supply of metals until the year 2050. The results of this study cannot be directly compared to other studies limiting themselves to the issue of resource depletion, as this study specifically deals with the extent of demands on industry for improvements in metal resource use.