Abstract
Potential and emerging fisheries create challenges and opportunities for fishery managers who need to decide how to sustainably manage a fishery that does not yet exist. A new Pacific hake stock off the west coast of Mexico has been identified. The Mexican government is interested in assessing the feasibility of a new commercial fishery. This work proposes and analyzes alternative potential fishery management measures for this possible new fishery under biological and market uncertainties. Results indicate that a new fishery could be biologically sustainable and economically profitable under a set of management strategies and control rules. A limited access strategy with low effort is recommended because it is most profitable per vessel and biologically cautious, considering the high uncertainty associated with the exploitation of an unfished stock. Despite the combination of high operating costs and low prices the fishery could still be profitable in the long-term, although there is risk of overexploitation if high fishing effort is allowed. Nevertheless, our results suggest low risk of fishing down the dwarf hake stock if the fishery is managed under low effort levels, allowing for sufficient opportunities for data collection and adaptive management. This work addresses the rare opportunity of assessing a fishery previous to its operation, with all the associated data limitations and uncertainty.
Published Version
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