Abstract
Sustainable energy transition (SET) refers to the formulation of effective policies for quantifying the paradigm shift from fossil fuels to carbon-neutral technologies. Despite the anticipation of sustainable solutions, many developing nations continue to experience unsustainable energy regimes. Understanding the potential of this transition demands a multifaceted approach, emphasizing techno-economic optimization and performance enhancement to address future decentralized energy constraints. Although one of several ways to enable SET, the consideration of renewable energy sources (RESs) coupled with energy storage technologies (ESTs), which can offer multi-dimensional decision flexibility in present energy policies, is quite restricted. Based on a comparative analysis of various ESTs, this paper provides insight exploration of the SET framework by leveraging a diverse range of renewable potentials. Utilizing a proprietary derivative-free algorithm (PDFA) and an original grid-search algorithm (OGSA), the study focuses on load forecasting across different time horizons using a real-time dataset from multiple load centers in Pakistan. Load forecasting is carried out based on a combination of seasonal naïve forecasting (SNF), seasonal and trend decomposition using loess forecasting (STLF), and artificial neural networks (ANN). Results reveal a minimum Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging from $0.105/kWh to $0.109/kWh in the presence of solar and dispatchable renewable-based hybrid configurations. For battery ESTs, based on NPC and LCOE, the feasibility is observed in the order of lead-acid (La), lithium-ion (Li-ion), and vanadium redox flow (VRF) technology. From a technical and capacity shortage fraction (CSF) perspective, Li-ion performed better than both La and VRF in terms of storage depletion as well as annual losses. Finally, a mid-career repowering analysis examines the behavior of energy storage technologies (ESTs), while sensitivity analyses and results validation highlight the significance of the proposed study's findings.
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