Sustainable development of Russian industry in the context of a macroeconomic shock and new industrial policy

Abstract

Aim. The presented study aims to analyze the sustainable development of Russian industry in the context of a macroeconomic shock.Tasks. The authors describe the manifestations and causes of the 2022 macroeconomic shock; assess the impact of the macroeconomic shock on the current level of industrial production in Russia; develop recommendations to ensure the sustainable development of domestic industry based on the implementation of a new industrial policy.Methods. This study uses the methods of comparative and retrospective analysis, generalization, scenario and situational forecasting, and expert assessment.Results. The turbulence of economic processes both in Russia and globally has increased dramatically since the end of February 2022. This gave rise to a situation that can be described as a macroeconomic shock, i.e. a significant and transient change in one or more macroeconomic parameters, disturbing the economy's equilibrium and causing a transition to a new quasi-equilibrium state. At the first stage, the macroeconomic shock caused a decline in industrial output. At the second stage, the decline was genereally stopped, but industrial restructuring was initiated, negatively affecting critical and technologically complex production. The analysis of available data clearly indicates a correlation between the magnitude of production decline in certain industrial sectors and the level of their import dependence. At the same time, the potential of traditional import substitution has largely been exhausted. Therefore, the authors propose a model of a new industrial policy for implementation. Its essence is that the state should organize the production of competitive industrial products rather than ensure it. This is a radical paradigm shift. The expressed conceptual idea will require further in-depth study in case it is adopted. The authors believe that this will happen shortly, and the scientific community will join the constructive discussion and elaboration of the ideas presented in the article.Conclusions. The modern Russian economy in general and industry in particular is developing in the context of a macroeconomic shock caused by the sanctions of the collective West. The production decline caused by the shock is gradually diminishing. However, there is a negative industrial restructuring caused by high import dependence of some industries. To remedy the situation, the idea of a new industrial policy based on a more active role of the state in the economy is proposed.