Abstract
The integration of advanced predictive models is pivotal for optimizing demand forecasting and inventory management in cold chain logistics. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques—ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)—to forecast demand trends and analyze key drivers in a mid-sized cold chain operation. Trained on a multi-year sales dataset, the ARIMA model excelled in capturing seasonal patterns, while the MLR model effectively incorporated multivariable factors such as temperature, product type, and promotional activity. Both models demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, with low Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), offering reliable and computationally efficient solutions for mid-sized operations. The findings underscore the novelty of combining ARIMA’s time-series capabilities with MLR’s multivariable analysis to address complex demand drivers. By aligning with Resource-Based View (RBV) and Supply Chain Resilience Theory, this research advances the understanding of AI-driven predictive models as strategic tools for enhancing operational efficiency, reducing waste, and promoting sustainability in cold chain logistics. This work sets the stage for future innovations in AI-driven supply chain optimization.
Published Version
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