Sustainable agricultural lands management by analyzing and predicting urban growth—a case study of Mitidja Plain, Algeria

Abstract

The suitability of agricultural lands is basic data for both sustainable agricultural planning and optimal orientation of future urbanization projects. Indeed, unplanned urban expansion leads to many social and ecological problems. The prediction of urban expansion will strongly help the decision makers and local authorities to create a suitable future urban planning while preserving the regional ecosystem and especially the agricultural lands. Using multitemporal satellite images acquired in 1997, 2001, and 2013 over the Mitidja plain in Algeria, the aim of this study is the analysis of the land use and land cover change (LULCC) spatio-temporal distributions from 1997 to 2013 to model and then predict the future LULCC in 2025. The cellular automata Markov chain model (CA-Markov) that we developed is used for LULCC prediction with a focus on urban sprawl and agricultural lands degradation over the Mitidja plain. Once calibrated and validated, the CA-Markov model generates land suitability maps that indicate the best locations for urban expansion while safekeeping the agricultural lands. The results are interesting and present valuable tools for urban planners and policymakers to ensure the sustainability management of agricultural areas over the study region.