Sustainability potential for Ginkgo biloba L. plantations under climate change uncertainty: An ex-situ conservation perspective

Abstract

G. biloba is native to China and one of the oldest living species. It has high economic value and has been used for medicinal, ornamental and other purposes. The current study sought to assess the potential sustainability of the plantations of the endangered species under climate change scenarios. The sustainability of the existing small wild population and plantations of the species worldwide were evaluated by assessing the changes in the climatic suitability of the areas to be used for the species plantations under different emission scenarios. A survey for the species distribution worldwide showed that it is currently planted in 29 botanic gardens. In Egypt only 31 trees exist in private and public botanic gardens. Propagation and germination experiments have been tested in 4 successive years to assess the effect of climate changes on germination requirements and phenology of the species. Propagation trials showed that seeds that were grown in soil media for 5 months under 25 °C attained high germination rate (>60%). Propagation trials in the nursery by stem cuttings gave promising results (100%) in 2015–2016. Using SDMs approach for assessing the change in the potential climatically suitable areas for the plantations and ex situ conservation of G. biloba under different climate change and emission scenarios, revealed that overall G. biloba is predicted to gain more climatically suitable areas under the four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), however, a gain in the climatically suitable areas for the species is expected under the low and moderate emission scenarios and a decline is expected under the more warming scenarios. Also, a northwards shift is predicted in the climatic suitability for the plantations of the species. The projected latitudinal shift needs to be considered by mangers of G. biloba plantations. The provided predictions can guide the managers in developing short- and long-term plans for sustaining the plantations of the species under a precipitously changing climate.