Analysis of the change in temperature trends in Subansiri River basin for RCP scenarios using CMIP5 datasets

Abstract

This study focuses on changes in the maximum and minimum temperature over the Subansiri River basin for different climate change scenarios. For the study, dataset from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) (i.e., coupled model intercomparison project phase five (CMIP5) dataset with representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) were utilized. Long-term (2011–2100) maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series were generated using the statistical downscaling technique for low emission scenario (RCP2.6), moderate emission scenario (RCP6.0), and extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Trends and change of magnitude in Tmax, Tmin, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were analyzed for different interdecadal time scales (2011–2100, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2070–2100) using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The temperature data series for the observed duration (1981–2000) has been found to show increasing trends in Tmax and Tmin at both annual and monthly scale. Trend analysis of downscaled temperature for the period 2011–2100 shows increase in annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature for all the selected RCP scenarios; however, on the monthly scale, Tmax and Tmin have been seen to have decreasing trends in some months.