Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations

Abstract

This study examines the projected characteristics of mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) in China during 2006–2100 from simulations of MPI-ESM-LR model within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Periods of 2011–2040 and 2061–2090 are concentrated on the analysis under the three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), a midrange mitigation emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a low emission scenario (RCP2.6). Under RCP8.5, the Tmean, Tmax and Tmin show pronounced warming with the annual rates of 0.43°C/decade, 0.42°C/decade, 0.45°C/decade during 2011–2040, and 0.72°C/decade, 0.70°C/decade, 0.76°C/decade during 2061–2090, which pronouncedly contributed by winter. Under RCP4.5, the Tmean, Tmax and Tmin display consistent increases during 2011–2040 with the trends of 0.29°C/decade, 0.29°C/decade, 0.30°C/decade on the annual basis, respectively, and the increases calm down for Tmean, Tmax and Tmin up to 0.14°C/decade during 2061–2090. Under RCP2.6, the Tmean, Tmax and Tmin demonstrate positive trends during 2011–2040 with the annual rates of 0.26°C/decade, 0.28°C/decade, 0.25°C/decade, respectively, and turn to negative afterwards. Moreover, the annual and seasonal Tmean, Tmax and Tmin are in agreement with the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and reflect the variability of the radiative forcing trajectories in the RCP. For the spatial patterns, the northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau are more sensitive and susceptible to climate change in future emission scenarios. It fails to capture the asymmetric trends for Tmax and Tmin projections, which do exist in the observations on the regional and global scales. This suggests that the projections have uncertainties in the models, and an understanding of causes is essential to improve the accuracies.