Survival status and influencing factors of HIV/AIDS on highly active anti-retrovial therapy in Shandong province

Abstract

Objective: To understand the survival status and influencing factors for HIV/AIDS patients on highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) in Shandong province. Methods: Both Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method and cumulative incidence function (CIF) were used to calculate the cumulative incidence of AIDS-related death respectively, and Fine-Gray model was used to identify the influencing factors related to survival time. Results: Through K-M method, a higher AIDS-related cumulated death rate than the CIF, was estimated. Among all the HIV/AIDS patients who initiated HAART from 2003 to 2015 in Shandong, 5 593 of them met the inclusion criteria. The cumulative incidence rate for AIDS-related death was 3.08% in 1 year, 4.21% in 3 years, 5.37% in 5 years, and 7.59% in 10 years respectively by CIF. Results from the F-G analysis showed that HIV/AIDS patients who were on HAART, the ones who had college degree or above (HR=0.40, 95%CI: 0.24-0.65) were less likely to die of AIDS-associated diseases. However, HIV/AIDS patients who were on HAART and living in the western areas of Shandong (HR=1.33, 95%CI: 1.01-1.89), diagnosed by medical institutions (HR=1.39, 95%CI: 1.06-1.80), started to receive care ≥1 year after diagnosis (HR=2.02, 95%CI: 1.30-3.15), their CD(4) cell count less than 200 cells/μl (HR=3.41, 95%CI: 2.59-4.59) at the time of diagnosis, with NVP in antiviral treatment (ART) regime (HR=1.36, 95%CI: 1.03-1.88), at Ⅲ/Ⅳ clinical stages (HR=2.61, 95%CI: 1.94-3.53) and CD(4) cell count less than 350 cells/μl (HR=5.48,95%CI: 2.32-12.72) at initiation of HAART ect., were more likely to die of AIDS-associated diseases. Conclusions: With the existence of competing risks, the cumulative incidence rate for AIDS-related death was overestimated by K-M, suggesting that competing risk models should be used in the survival analysis. Measures as early diagnoses followed by timely care and early HAART could end up with the reduction of AIDS-related death.