Survival and predictors of mortality among colorectal cancer patients on follow-up in Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Sidama region, Southern Ethiopia, 2022. A 5-year retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer were still rising rapidly in many low-income and middle-income countries, which was linked to ongoing societal and economic status. Colorectal cancer is the leading cancer in Ethiopia with relatively lower survival. However, colorectal cancer patients' survival time and predictors have not been well studied in Southern Ethiopia. This study aimed to assess five-year survival and predictors of mortality among colorectal cancer patients at Hawassa Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia. Facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 323 patients who visited Hawassa Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from May 1st, 2017 to April 30th, 2022. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve with the Log-rank test was used to estimate the survival time. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine the net effect of each independent variable on time to death after diagnosis. Over the 5-year observation period, the overall mortality rate was 38.5%, with an incidence density of 31 fatalities per 100 person-years observation. Survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years was 78%, 53, 32.4%, 23.3%, and 18.7% respectively. The multivariable analysis showed that metastatic disease (AHR = 4.2, CI: 1.5-11.5), baseline carcinoembryonic antigen level ≥5ng/ml (AHR: 2.4, CI: 1.2-5.8), living in rural areas (AHR = 2.2, CI:1.03-4.8) and mucinous carcinoma (AHR = 0.33, CI: 0.13-0.87) were independent predictors of colorectal cancer mortality. Overall survival of colorectal cancer patients in the study was low compared to similar studies in developing and developed worlds. A significantly low survival rate was observed for patients with advanced stage, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen levels, and rural residents indicating the key role of early detection and timely initiation of treatment to improve survival and quality of life of patients with colorectal cancer.