Abstract
In the present article, we are going to examine the effects of oil and non-oil export on economic growth. Along with this concept, we have used the theory of time series and the method of VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) for the dependent variables RGDP (Real Gross National Production), ROEX (Real Oil Export) and RNOEX (Real Non Oil Export) for the years 1973-2007. At the end of the test, it is concluded that both the variables have positive effect on the economic growth of Iran. Considering the different theories about the economic growth in countries dependency to the income of oil, they all agree on the decrease of these dependencies. The increase of non-oil export and suitable policies should be applied to decrease the dependency to the oil income (considering its positive relationship with Iran ’ s economic growth).
Highlights
One early explanation of the phenomenon is social: that easy riches lead to sloth
First we are evaluated the static of major dependent variables (RGDP, Real Oil Export (ROEX), Real Non - oil export (RNOEX)) and using the Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) Model, we have examined the cointegration amongst them
The Stationary of the dependent variables were calculated using of the Dickey - Fuller (ADF) test
Summary
The global commodity price booms of the 1970's promoted additional research about the economics of natural resource booms. One of the main subjects in this literature was how macroeconomic policy responded to commodity price booms. The question about the long - term growth effects of natural resource production and/or natural resource booms was studied implicitly through the issue of whether natural resource production promoted de - industrialization (the Dutch disease). The further link between de - industrialization and slow growth was probably presumed to exist in many cases but was not the subject of extensive analysis. Overall, this literature did not yield a cross country study examining the relationship between natural resource abundance and growth
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