A Comparative Analysis on the Role of Crude Oil and Non-Oil Exports on Nigerian Economy

Abstract

Oil export and nonoil export have remained sources of revenue for Nigeria over the years, however the over dependence on oil sector and neglect of the nonoil sector has raised issues on which export sector impacts more on the Nigeria economy. This study therefore carried out comparative analysis on the role crude oil export and nonoil export in relations to Nigeria’s economic growth. Data were collected from CBN statistical bulletin from 1980-2015. OLS, Augmented dickey fuller, co-integration and error correction model were used to analyze the data. Findings suggest that both oil export sector and nonoil export sector have positive impact on GDP. The ADF showed that all the variables are stationary at first order of difference while the co-integration shows that two cointegrating variables. The error correction model indicates that oil export sector and nonoil export sector have long run relationship with Nigeria’s GDP. It concludes that nonoil export has greater impact on the economy than the oil export sector for the period under review. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the government should implement export diversification policies. Non-oil sector exports should be encouraged. The development of the nonoil export sector will further improve the volume of exports and balance of trade in Nigeria.