Surface ozone trends and related mortality across the climate regions of the contiguous United States during the most recent climate period, 1991–2020

Abstract

In this study, we leverage multiple linear regression and quantile regression combined with a novel deep learning tool (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to isolate the impact of meteorology on surface ozone pollution and to assess the effectiveness of emission reduction measures across the Contiguous United States (US) during the latest climate period (1991–2020). The findings demonstrate that all regions except the Northern Rockies and the Southwest experienced decreasing trends in median values during the warm season, with rural stations in the Southeast and urban stations in the Northeast experiencing the greatest declines of −1.29 ± 0.07 and −0.85 ± 0.08 ppb.a−1, respectively. Similar to the original data, the median values of adjusted MDA8 (Maximum Daily 8-h Average) ozone show negative trends in all regions except for Southwest urban stations, with the highest recorded in rural stations of the Southeast (−1.13 ± 0.05 ppb.a−1) and urban stations of the Northeast (−0.79 ± 0.06 ppb.a−1). In addition, the 95th percentile values of original and adjusted MDA8 ozone decreased in all regions in which Northeast urban stations had the greatest reduction (original: 3.53 ± 0.29 ppb.a−1, adjusted: 2.96 ± 0.27 ppb.a−1). Our results suggest that meteorological inter-annual variability reduces the ozone burden during the warm season in the eastern US and southern California; at the same time, it contributes to increased ozone pollution in the central US, Southwest, and northern California, indicating that efforts to reduce air pollution may be hindered by climate change. Our analysis of the impact of short-term exposure to ozone on health shows that the South was the most positively impacted by emission control policies implemented after 2000, and the Northeast had the highest number of prevented deaths (30.45 deaths prevented/million people) resulting from respiratory diseases. The results of this study should benefit air quality managers and policymakers, particularly in their efforts to update ozone mitigation strategies.