Supply Chain Risk Diffusion Model Considering Multi-Factor Influences under Hypernetwork Vision

Abstract

Considering the problem of risk diffusion in increasingly complex supply chain networks, we propose using the supply chain risk diffusion model, under the hypernetwork vision, to study the influence of certain factors on risk diffusion, including the herd mentality, self-vigilance, talent recruitment, and enterprise management. First of all, the state transition probability tree is constructed to represent the state transition of each enterprise, then the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA) is used to analyze the scale of risk spread, and the diffusion threshold of risk is discussed. We find that the herd mentality, self-vigilance, talent recruitment, and enterprise management will effectively curb the spread of risks. Directly recruiting talents and strengthening enterprise management is more effective than increasing vigilance. This study helps professionals to understand the mechanism of risk diffusion, and it provides effective suggestions on how to suppress risk diffusion in the real world.