A new model for supply chain risk propagation considering herd mentality and risk preference under warning information on multiplex networks

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new model for supply chain risk propagation considering herd mentality and risk preference under warning information on multiplex networks, in which one layer is used to denote the risk propagation and the other one represents the warning information propagation network. In this model, the enterprises can be divided into two types, namely with warning information or without warning information. Meanwhile, the herd mentality and risk preference are considered to discuss their influence on the supply chain risk propagation. We build the probability transition tree to establish the state transition equation in detail through the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA) and analyze the established equation and derive the propagation threshold of supply chain risk. The analysis results are shown that the propagation threshold has been correlated with the network topology, the herd mentality and the risk preference under warning information diffusion Finally, the simulation results further verify the feasibility of the model.