Supply Chain Modeling in the Aftermath of a Disaster: A System Dynamics Approach in Housing Recovery

Abstract

Severe catastrophic natural disasters adversely affect housing stock and regional capacity to build and repair houses, with unfavorable impacts on the business continuity of industrial and business organizations resting on that affected community. Restoring industrial capacity and business continuity is crucial for the organizations’ survival in the aftermath of a disaster but the process takes time while the affected region faces an unexpected surge in the demand for housing. Modeling approaches largely used in the supply chain management realm may support humanitarian logistics and policy-making by providing a testbed in which supply chain elements of the recovery process can be examined before implementing. This research presents a system dynamics model that considers the problem of housing recovery from the demand and supply perspective and provides significant insights for policymakers into how the production of permanent housing depends upon the uncertainties and feedback effects of material and labor. In order to highlight its utility, a hypothetical scenario in which a hurricane hits the U.S. Hampton Roads region, which is a major population center along the mid-Atlantic coast, has been configured by using actual data collected from both governmental and academic sources.