Abstract
Electric power grids in remote communities around the world tend to be highly oil-dependent, unlike large, interconnected grids. Consequently, self-contained power grids such as the Hawaiian Islands’ have become testbeds for aggressive renewable energy integration (PV, wind, and ocean energy) and transportation electrification. However, there remains a lack of critical analysis for remote communities to determine the benefits of transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to plug-in electric vehicles (EVs). This case study examines the impacts of this transition to EVs and renewable power generation on fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions on the oil-dependent Island of Oahu, Hawaii. Average passenger EVs were found to consume seven times less fossil fuel (the equivalent of 66 gallons of gasoline (GGe), than their gasoline-powered counterparts (455 gallons) in 2020. Average EVs also cut emissions in half, (2 MTCO2 versus 4 MTCO2). Several renewable power and EV transition scenarios were modeled to assess impacts out to 2050. Fossil fuel use and emissions plummet with more clean power and increasing EV numbers. By 2045, in the most ambitious scenario, all gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles (passenger and freight) will consume a total of 8.8 billion GGe, and EVs 0.090 billion GGe (1%). ICE CO2 emissions will total 80 MMT, and EVs 4.4 MMT (5.5%). By 2050, the anticipated transition to electric passenger and freight vehicles combined with renewable power will lead to 99% less fossil fuel consumed, and 93% less CO2 emitted.
Highlights
Smaller standalone power grids, unlike large, interconnected power systems, continue to be powered by diesel oil
This study examines the effects of electrification of transportation and growing mix of renewable power generation on the Hawaiian Island of Oahu
Fossil fuel dependency has decreased over the years as solar and wind were added to the power grid
Summary
Unlike large, interconnected power systems, continue to be powered by diesel oil These small power systems are challenging to integrate high levels of intermittent renewable resources such as solar and wind. Power generation in Hawaii has changed considerably in the past six years and there is a gap between the current understanding of EV fossil fuel use and resulting emission for the range of both passenger and freight vehicles compared with their ICE counterparts. There is a need to investigate future scenarios This analysis quantifies current impacts of passenger and freight EVs on fossil fuel use and the resulting CO2 emissions. Scenarios were modeled for renewable power projections combined with projections for the transition to EVs over the coming decades These scenarios are intended as examples to better understand future uncertainties, develop strategies, and inform the development of policy
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