Abstract
Abstract Accurate summertime weather forecasts, particularly the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), over the semiarid southwest United States pose a difficult challenge for numerical models. Two case studies, one with typical weather on 6 July 1999 and another with unusual flooding on 8 July 1999, using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) nested inside the regional Eta Model, were conducted to test numerical weather prediction capabilities over the lower Colorado River basin. The results indicate that the rapid changes in synoptic patterns during these two cases strongly affect the weather and rainfall situation in the basin. The model illustrates that the midlevel sinking over the low elevation of the southwest area of the basin “capped” the development of deep convection in case 1; meanwhile, in case 2, a shear line and convergence over the Las Vegas area valley stimulated intense convective storms in the region. In both cases, the low-level jet (LLJ) stream from the Gulf of Californ...
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