Summer Temperature and All-cause Mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Smart City Jaipur, India

Abstract

A considerable association between temperature and all-cause mortality has been documented in various studies. Further insights can be obtained from studying the impact of temperature and heat index (HI) for Jaipur city’s all-cause mortality. The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat (daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily mean temperature, relative humidity and HI) and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for urban population of Jaipur. For summer months, we collected the data on various temperature and all-cause mortality parameters for at least 10 years. The student’s t-test and ANOVA were used to analyse variations in mean temperature, maximum temperature and HI. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between ambient heat and lag time effect all-cause mortality. A total of 75,571 deaths (all-cause mortality) for 1,203 summer days (2006–2015) were analysed in relation to temperature and relative humidity. The mean daily all-cause mortality has been estimated at 62.8 ± 15.2 for the study period. There is a significant increase of 39% per day all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of 45 °C and above. However only 10% rise per day all-cause mortality for extreme danger days (HI > 54 °C). The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with daily maximum temperature ( F = 34.6, P < .0001) and HI (discomfort index) from caution to extreme danger risk days ( F = 5.0, P < .0019). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at a peak period on the same day of the maximum temperature ( r = 0.245 at P < .01) but continues up to four days. The study concludes that the effect of ambient heat on all-cause mortality increase is clearly evident (rise of 39% deaths/day). Accordingly, focus should be put on developing adaptation measures against ambient heat. This analysis may satisfy policy makers’ needs. Extreme heat-related mortality needs further study to reduce adverse effects on health among Jaipur’s urban population.