Sudan after Omar al-Bashir: A territory of instability

Abstract

Sudan has a long history of civil wars and conflicts, much of which occurred during the 30-year (1989-2019) rule of Omar al-Bashir. The crisis in the Arab world, which came to be known as the “Arab Spring” and manifested itself in the early 2010s in major political upheavals in North Africa, did not spare Sudan, which has experienced several waves of popular protests over the past decade. The political situation in this country has noticeably worsened due to the loss of most of the oil fields as a result of the division of Sudan in 2011 into two states - the Republic of Sudan (RS) and the Republic of South Sudan (RSS). While mutinies by soldiers and officers were a common occurrence in the RS, it was the mass protests in late 2018 and early 2019, organized by the civil opposition and dubbed the “December Revolution” that provoked the military coup in 2019, which resulted in the overthrow of the long-lived president. However, the establishment of a transitional military-civilian government did not resolve the numerous contradictions in Sudanese society - between the army and civil society, individual security agencies, the ruling coalition and the leaders of the rebel movements, with whom a peace agreement was signed. Political instability was exacerbated by economic problems associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, and on October 25, 2021, another military coup took place, which, however, was not accompanied by regime transformation or significant changes in the composition of the ruling group, but allowed the military to extend the transition period and delay the transfer of supreme power in Sudan to civilians. Meanwhile, the intensity of military and political contacts between the Russian Federation and Sudan created a solid foundation for the expansion of bilateral relations, which continued to develop after the ouster of Omar al-Bashir.