Abstract
Research on success factors in football focusing on national teams is sparse. The current study examines the success factors during the World Cup 2018 in Russia and the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. A total of 128 matches were analyzed using a generalized order logit approach. Twenty-nine variables were identified from previous research. The results showed that defensive errors (p = 0.0220), goal efficiency (p = 0.0000), duel success (p = 0.0000), tackles success (p = 0.0100), shots from counterattacks (p = 0.0460), clearances (p = 0.0130), and crosses (p = 0.0160) have a significant influence on winning a match during those tournaments. Ball possession, distance, and market value of the teams had no influence on success. Overall, most of the critical success factors and those with the highest impact on winning close games were defensive actions. Moreover, the results suggest that direct play and pressing were more effective than ball possession play. The study contributes to a better understanding of success factors and can help to improve effectiveness of training, match preparation, and coaching.
Highlights
To understand the mechanisms underlying success in football is critical for coaches, players, managers, journalists, and other stakeholders
Shots from counterattack, goal efficiency, crosses, tackle success (%), defensive errors, duel success (%), and clearances had a significant influence on winning a match
The study showed that defensive errors had the strongest influence on the probability of winning or losing a football match during the World Cups 2018 and 2014
Summary
To understand the mechanisms underlying success in football is critical for coaches, players, managers, journalists, and other stakeholders. 11 studies involving data of success factors from a World Cup were published in recent years (Lepschy et al, 2018). Of these studies, only six used a predictive study design compared with 24 studies about club teams, which can provide more sophisticated conclusions (Lepschy et al, 2018). Only six used a predictive study design compared with 24 studies about club teams, which can provide more sophisticated conclusions (Lepschy et al, 2018) None of those studies about World Cup matches used market value as an independent variable. More research is needed to close this gap in possible unidentified success factors
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