Abstract
<p>Located in a highly sensitive climate area, according to the IPCC reports, Lake Kinneret is exposed to extreme changes in the next few decades. Lake Kinneret is a warm monomictic lake, located between subtropical and arid climatic belts. It is thermally stratified throughout most of the year and mixes thoroughly each winter when the epilimnion water temperature reaches equilibrium with the hypolimnion water temperature by surface cooling and turbulence. Using high-resolution atmospheric projections obtained from COSMO-CLM simulation to force a 3D hydrodynamical model, we show significant changes in the stratification and circulation of the lake over the next five decades. As air temperature is expected to rise by up to 2.5<sup>o</sup>C in winter and autumn by 2070, the water column full mixing is expected to be suppressed. Unmixed years are expected to appear more often and full mixing will be re-activated just when cold enough winter conditions allow a full water column turnover. The lack of mixing between the epilimnion and the hypolimnion may create an environment that is oxygen depleted in which very few organisms can live, hence, might strongly affect the lake's present ecological system, its sustainability, and its water quality. Stratification Index analysis results show that Lake Kinneret will remain stratified throughout the year 20%-30% of the time in 2030-2070 under the moderate climate change scenario RCP4.5. However, abrupt cooling of the lake surface due to enhanced latent heat loss is identified, around the year 2065, in the model results, and is expected to restrain the dramatic change in the lake stratification.</p>
Published Version
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