Subsidence Prediction under Thick Alluvium Based on Probability Integration Method

Abstract

The surface subsidence resulting from coal mining can lead to terrible land damage, thus studying the distribution of surface subsidence under thick alluvium is of crucial significance.Focusing on the example of Henghe coalmine in Jining, Shandong province, this paperestablished the prediction model for main section and arbitrary points in mining areas based on the probability integration method, by which the size of subsidence, tilt, curvature, horizontal movement and deformation were predicted after the exploitation of coalbeds 2# and 3#. And the result, which is basically consistent with the actual situation, shows that subsidence areais 78 hm2 and the settlement reaches 9987mm. The thick alluvium covered the mining area accountsfor the greater surface subsidence coefficient, subsidence value, horizontal movement coefficient,horizontal movement, subsidence area and smaller deviation of inflection point.