Abstract
This research paper provides a regional review of the state of electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), focusing on installed capacity, electricity generation, the growth of renewable energy, electricity consumption, government investment, public financial flows, and several major initiatives. The study contrasts electrification between 1990 and 2010 with recent efforts and identifies countries that are consistently making progress and those that lag. The analyses show signs of progress on scaling up SSA power infrastructure and increasing electricity access, particularly in the Eastern and Western sub-regions. The installed generation capacity expanded at an average rate of 2.43 GW/year between 2005 and 2015. Renewable energy is growing, particularly solar, wind, and geothermal; about 9.7 GW of renewable energy capacity was installed between 2010 and 2016. Over this period, the net electricity generation in SSA increased at 9.1 TWh/year, more than double the historical average growth of 4.02 TWh/year (1990–2010). In general, the study found that rates of electrification across the entire region are more than twice the historical rates, and an average of at least 26 million people are now gaining access to electricity yearly. Nevertheless, progress is uneven across SSA. As of 2016, almost half of the population without electricity access live in Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. Quantitative analysis suggests that about 70 million people in SSA would have to gain access every year from 2017 to achieve universal access by 2030. Overall, SSA countries with national programs on energy access supported by policy/regulatory framework and infrastructure investment are making progress.
Highlights
Access to electricity is critical to the improvement of socioeconomic development indicators concerning poverty eradication, access to food, better health care, quality education, clean water and sanitation, good housing and infrastructure, economic development, gender empowerment, environment protection, and climate change
The analysis presented in this paper is based on databases from the World Bank (World Development Indicators), the US Information Administration, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the United Nations (UN) Population Division
In an Energy for All Case scenario modeling for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), more than 80 percent of the needed capacity to provide universal access is projected to come from decentralized technologies; the total additional generation capacity has been estimated to be at 87 GW, which consists of 15 GW of grid-based capacity, 40 GW of mini-grid capacity, and 32 GW of off-grid capacity (IEA, 2017a)
Summary
Access to electricity is critical to the improvement of socioeconomic development indicators concerning poverty eradication, access to food, better health care, quality education, clean water and sanitation, good housing and infrastructure, economic development, gender empowerment, environment protection, and climate change. Corruption, poor management, theft, and vandalism aggravate the problematic power situation in Africa (Africa Progress Panel, 2017) All of these energy bottlenecks and power shortages are estimated to cost Africa 2 to 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually (African Development Bank, 2017b). There seems to be enough political will from the international community and African leaders to catalyze the rapid development of Africa’s power sector and ensure that all inhabitants of the subcontinent have access to basic electricity. Many regional and global initiatives have been formed to mobilize financial support and the private sector to tackle the monumental challenge of energy poverty These include SEforALL (SEforALL, 2016), Power Africa (USAID, 2016, 2017), the New Deal on Energy for Africa (African Development Bank, 2017b), Energy Africa Campaign, and the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) (SEFA, 2015, 2016). The paper provides useful information for advocates and policy- and decisionmakers to evaluate, calibrate, and amend strategies and efforts to electrify SSA at a pace needed to attain universal electricity access by 2030
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