Sub-national TIMES model for analyzing future regional use of biomass and biofuels in Sweden and France

Abstract

The objective of this study is to improve evaluations of the future use of biomass sources in Sweden and France by representing the high spatial variations of the supply and cost of biomass sources in energy system models. The proposed methodology considers a high spatial disaggregation of biomass supply sources, as well as detailed biomass cost–supply curves, and is thereby able to account for spatial differences in heterogeneous land qualities, management strategies, and possible adaptation rates. Integrating the methodology into national or regional energy system models will enhance cost-effective evaluations of biomass sources as well as the development of the bioenergy sector. A TIMES energy system model was used to evaluate bioenergy production potential for France and Sweden based on domestic biomass sources and under the assumption that bioenergy production should not be at the expense of domestic food and forestry supply. Results show that by 2050, the biomass sources considered could provide as much as 250 PJ of bioenergy in Sweden, and 1470 PJ of bioenergy in France. Results further showed that 1st generation biofuels are likely to continue to play a substantial role in the biofuel mix. While 2nd generation biofuel production in Sweden is likely to be low, larger amounts of 2nd generation biofuels could be produced in France. However, the amount and type of 2nd generation biofuel produced in France was found to be highly dependent on the bioenergy demand level.