Abstract

The study of the impact of solar activity on the Earth's climate is an important matter for predicting the change of climate elements for long periods. Most research has been limited to studying the relationship of sunspots with a change in one of the climate elements. In this research, the effect of the solar activities of coronal mass ejections and solar flare on a climatic element in the troposphere, represented by thunderstorms during the winter season in the city of Mosul for the 23 and 24 solar cycles, respectively, was studied. The data on coronal mass ejections were collected from the SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog database and solar flare data were taken from the website National Oceanic and Atmosperic (NOAA). Climatic data on thunderstorms for the winter seasons from the period (1996-2019) were used from the monitoring station in the city of Mosul from the Iraqi General Authority for Meteorology and Seismic Monitoring.The parameters were analyzed using the statistical program (Minitab 19.0). The results showed that there is an inverse relationship between the monthly rates of solar activities with the monthly rate of thunderstorm frequency, with the exception of the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 for the time period (2008-2013), where the results showed the existence of a positive relationship between them

Highlights

  • The study of the impact of solar activity on the Earth's climate is an important matter for predicting the change of climate elements for long periods

  • Most research has been limited to studying the relationship of sunspots with a change in one of the climate elements

  • The effect of the solar activities of coronal mass ejections and solar flare on a climatic element in the troposphere, represented by thunderstorms during the winter season in the city of Mosul for the 23 and 24 solar cycles, respectively, was studied

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Summary

Introduction

‫يوضح الشكل (‪ )3‬العلاقة الإحصائية بين المعدل الشيري لطاقات المقذوفات الكتمية الاكميمية والمعدل الشيري لتك ارر‬ ‫العواصف الرعدية فوق مدينة الموصل لمدورتين الشمسيتين ‪ )3115-6991( 33‬و‪ .)3169-3112( 32‬وقد كانت العلاقة‬ ‫متوسطة عكسية لمدورة ‪ 33‬حيث بمغ معامل بيرسون لو (‪ ،)R=-0.71‬أما معامل بيرسون لدورة ‪ 32‬فقد كان غير واضح وبمغ‬ ‫مقداره (‪.)R=-0.1‬‬ ‫ب – الطور الصاعد لمدورتين ‪ 32‬و‪35‬‬ ‫تتمثل العلاقة بين المعدل الشيري لطاقات المقذوفات الكتمية الإكميمية والمعدل الشيري لتك ارر العواصف الرعدية لمطور‬ ‫الصاعد لمدو ارت الشمسية ‪ 33‬و‪ 32‬بالشكل (‪ ،)2‬ونلاحظ أن الطور الصاعد لمدورة ‪ 33‬ذو تأثير عكسي قوي حيث بمغ معامل‬ ‫بيرسون للارتباط الخطي (‪ )R=-0.85‬وبدلالة إحصائية (‪ ،)Sig=0.000‬أما منحني الطور الصاعد لمدورة الشمسية ‪ 32‬ذو علاقة‬ ‫طردية ضعيفة وقد بمغ معامل ارتباط بيرسون (‪ )R=0.38‬وبدلالة إحصائية (‪.)Sig=0.008‬‬

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