Abstract
Due to the randomness and weak symmetry of traffic accidents occurring in the expressway maintenance operation area, it is difficult to use the number of traffic accidents to evaluate the safety of maintenance operation areas. In this paper, the traffic characteristics and traffic conflicts of the maintenance operation area with the lane closed on the outside of the two-way four-lane expressway are studied. By using the statistical method, the distribution of vehicle speed and time headway in different areas of the maintenance operation area are analyzed, and the queuing characteristics of vehicles in the upstream transition zone of the expressway are determined. Based on improved time to collision (TTC) model, the traffic conflict severity of expressway maintenance operation area is divided. The negative binomial distribution is used to establish a traffic conflict prediction model for the enclosed maintenance area of the outer lane of the expressway, and the validity of the traffic conflict prediction model is verified based on the average absolute error percentage (MAPE). The research results show that: when the 0 < TTC < 1.3 s, the traffic conflict is serious conflict; when 1.3 s < TTC, the traffic conflict is non-serious conflict. Furthermore, the traffic conflict prediction model has high accuracy, the MAPE of the warning area and the upstream transition area are 10.8% and 5.0%, respectively.
Highlights
During the expressway maintenance operation area, due to the need to close the lane, vehicles through the maintenance operation area are forced to slow down, lane change, confluence
According to China’s road safety accident report [1], traffic accidents on expressways accounted for 3.15% of the total traffic accidents in 2018, and a total of 1100 people were killed in expressway maintenance operation area
The purpose of this paper is to establish a traffic conflict prediction for expressway for expressway maintenance operation areas based on negative binomial model distribution, and maintenance operation areas based on negative binomial distribution, and provide a basis for provide a basis for traffic safety evaluation
Summary
During the expressway maintenance operation area, due to the need to close the lane, vehicles through the maintenance operation area are forced to slow down, lane change, confluence. It leads to the increase of traffic conflicts, and induces traffic accidents, which greatly affects the safety of expressway maintenance operation area. Relevant studies show that [3,4,5], compared with the road sections in the non-maintenance operation area, the traffic accident rate in the maintenance operation area has increased. This increase is mainly due to the complex traffic environment in the expressway maintenance operation area, which leads to more traffic conflicts. It is of great significance to study the closed maintenance operation area of the outer lane of the expressway to improve the safety of the maintenance operation area
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