Abstract
A reasonable analysis of flood season staging is significant to the management of floods and the alleviation of water shortage. For this paper, the case of the Chengbi River Reservoir in China was selected for study. Based on fractal theory, the flood season is divided into several sub-seasons by using four indexes (multi-year average daily rainfall, multi-year maximum rainfall, multi-year average daily runoff, and multi-year maximum daily runoff) in this study. Also the Benefit-Risk theory is applied to evaluate the effects of staged dispatching. The results show that the flood season of the Chengbi River basin should be divided into the pre-flood season (13 April–6 June), the main flood season (7 June–9 September) and the post-flood season (10 September–31 October). After adjusting the flood limit water level for sub-season and benefit assessment, the probability of exceedance after reservoir flood season operation increases by 0.13×10-5, the average annual expected risk is 0.2264 million RMB, and the average annual benefit increases by 0.88–1.62 million RMB. The benefits obtained far outweigh the risks, indicating the importance of staging the flood season.
Highlights
According to the statistics of the United Nations Environment Program, compared to the past 100 years, the global annual water resources per capita have reduced from 40,000 m3 to 6840 m3
Large amounts of water have been discharged during the flood season, resulting in a huge waste of water resources
Flood resources can be used to a greater degree, which is one of the important issues that needs to be studied and solved today
Summary
According to the statistics of the United Nations Environment Program, compared to the past 100 years, the global annual water resources per capita have reduced from 40,000 m3 to 6840 m3. It is expected that by 2030, nearly 50% of the world’s population will have less than 1000 m3 of annual per capita water resources and will be in a state of severe water shortage [1]. In most of the countries, floods have seasonal patterns of change, and it is necessary to study the flood season and stage it rationally to raise the FLWL (flood limit water level) of the reservoir appropriately. In this way, flood resources can be used to a greater degree, which is one of the important issues that needs to be studied and solved today
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