Abstract
AbstractIn view of analyzing forecast method of long-term forecast of generating capacity of wind power, this paper puts forward the long-term forecast model of wind power generation, which is based on the grey systems theory. Considering that wind power generation depends on wind speed, first we may establish wind - power function through the existing wind speed and wind power of the pre-installed wind turbine, resulting in years of wind power generation data. And then, a grey information renewal GM (1, 1) model for predicting calculated capacity of annual wind power generation is established by using the calculated annual wind power in this paper. Moreover, the model is applied to predict the calculated capacity of annual output of a wind turbine generator system in FuJin wind farm.KeywordsGrey ForecastGrey ModelForecast of Wind Power GenerationMean Absolute Error
Published Version
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