Abstract
Global warming and land-use type shifting lead to the degradation of natural habitats. The research on the ecological and environmental impact of the subtropical monsoon climate zone on food crop cultivation is not systematic enough. An Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST)–Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS)–Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was created to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal variations for food crop habitat quality (HQ) in China’s subtropical monsoon climate zone from 2010 to 2030. The HQ degradation trend was obvious during 2010–2030 under the influence of land-use change. The expansion of lower habitat areas was larger than that of medium and higher habitat areas. The shared socio-economic pathways SSP-CP and SSP-EP increased the mean total area of suitable areas compared with the SSP-ND scenario for food crops by 9% and 17.8%, respectively. Land-use shifts increased the suitable range of food crops and mitigated the negative impacts of urban expansion on food growth. This research has theoretical guidance for land-use planning for food crop production in subtropical monsoon climate zones.
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