Study on the impact of reclamation and development of Yancheng coastal wetlands on the spatio-temporal evolution of wintering Anatidae habitat

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As a World Natural Heritage Site primarily focused on protecting migratory bird habitats, the Yancheng coastal wetland is also an important land resource reserve area in China. With a long history of reclamation, the impact of reclamation on waterbird habitats has attracted widespread attention. Therefore, this study was based on the distribution data of wintering Anatidae from 1987 to 2020 and coastal land reclamation data. The landscape development intensity (LDI) index and MaxEnt model were used to reveal the spatiotemporal changes in reclamation development intensity and identify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of Anatidae habitats. A geographical weight regression (GWR) model was used to analyze the local differences for the impact of changes in reclamation development intensity on the spatiotemporal distribution of Anatidae habitats. The results showed that the area of land types with higher reclamation intensity in the study area increased rapidly from 1987 to 2020, and the overall reclamation intensity showed a pattern of low in the northeast and high in the southwest. The high-intensity range in 1987 was 5.01 ∼ 6.00, and the reclamation intensity in the western area of Dafeng to Tiaozini was generally greater than 8.01 in 2020. From 1987 to 2020, the population of Anatidae first decreased and then increased, with a clear southward shift in spatial distribution. The evaluation results of suitable habitats revealed that the most suitable area significantly declined from 1280.76 hm2 in 1997 to 60.19 hm2 in 2020, which indicated that the patch space of high-quality habitats was further compressed. The area with the greatest positive impact for the intensity of reclamation and development on habitat suitability from 1987 to 1997 was concentrated near the Beihuanchong area, while in 2007, the negative impact was mostly distributed in the northern and western Hexin area. The regression coefficient ranged from −0.665 ∼ -0.513. The negative impact of reclamation and development further deteriorated in 2020, with a negative correlation coefficient ranging from −1.642 ∼ -0.699. There were significant differences in the impact of environmental variables on the distribution of Anatidae habitats in different periods. In this study, a habitat protection and restoration pattern for Anatidae is proposed, which may provide an important reference for the protection of wintering Anatidae populations and the structural restoration of habitats in Yancheng coastal wetlands.