Study on the Decision of BOT Project Concession Period Based on a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Abstract

In an agreement of a BOT project, concession period is one of the core terms that directly influence the benefits of all parties and the success of a project. Concession period has aroused the attention of both domestic and foreign scholars. This paper summarizes the main influencing factors of the concession period, simulating the NPV of the project income in Monte Carlo method with the probability distribution of the actual situation, selecting corresponding concession period according to a reasonable level of IRR. Based on the simulation results, the scheme of the highest comprehensive utility can be approached with the help of multi-objective fuzzy evaluation model for scheme optimization. And it also provides a possible solution for concession period strategy through the proof of a case.