Study on the decision-making behavior of evacuation for coastal residents under typhoon storm surge disaster

Abstract

Storm surge is one kind of meteorological tides which may cause serious destruction on coastal facilities. In the past, large death tolls have resulted from the rise of the ocean associated with many of the major typhoons that have made landfall. Although evacuation has been recognized as an effective protective action in responding to a typhoon emergency, it is still not clear why some people leave but others do not. Thus, it is important to identify which factors govern the behavior of at risk people on evacuation decision. The empirical work presented in this paper is the result of an original survey. The survey was designed to understand coastal resident's possible evacuation decision under alternate typhoon storm surge scenarios. The investigative team conducted surveys with evacuees to learn about the geophysical and social influences that had factored in their decision to evacuate. We obtained the basic information of coastal residents under typhoon storm surge disaster zone through questionnaire and interview. Based on the investigation and analysis, the analysis of these factors are summarized as follows: Demographic characteristics of the participants, disaster cognitive factors, the consideration of evacuation decision-making, the choice of evacuation site, evacuation behavior factors. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed, which resulted in an effective empirical model for evacuation behavior of coastal residents. This paper identified several independent variables whose effects on evacuation might interact with the effect of coastal residents. This result not only offers a strategy for improving disaster prevention, but also provides policy-makers with some insights to intensify and improve emergency plan of preventing typhoon storm surge.