Abstract
Hydrological process simulation and rainfall–runoff analysis are important foundations for reasonably evaluating changes in water resources. In this paper, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model was used to simulate runoff without observed data for exploring the applicability of the model in the Kequ, Dari, and Jimai river basins in the source region of the Yellow River, and the Balegen River basin in the inland arid source region. The results show that, from 2015 to 2018, the VIC model had a good simulation effect. The Nash efficiency coefficients (NSE) of the four basins were all above 0.7, and the NSE of the Dari River basin reached 0.93. The relative error (RE) of the three river basins was about 5%, on average, and the RE of the Balegen basin was 6.50%, indicating that the model has good applicability in the study area. Climate perturbation experiments were performed to quantitatively analyze the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The results show that, in the source area of the Yellow River, rainfall and runoff are roughly linearly related. However, in the inland arid source area, temperature has a slightly greater impact on runoff than rainfall.
Highlights
As an important natural resource, water is an important factor to control in the construction of the ecological environment
Due to the impact of climate change and human activities, water shortages are becoming increasingly serious and water problems become an obstacle to the sustainable development of the social economy [1,2,3]
Runoff is one of the main sources of water resources and an important part of the water cycle [4]. It is especially important in inland arid regions [5,6,7]
Summary
As an important natural resource, water is an important factor to control in the construction of the ecological environment. As the main factor of climate change, affects the change in watershed runoff and has a direct impact on water resources, ecological environment, and social and economic development [9]. Most researchers in Northwestern China use hydrological models to simulate the Yellow River basin and its surrounding watersheds, and there are very few studies on runoff simulation in inland arid source regions. The applicability of the VIC model was analyzed and the relationship between rainfall and runoff in the four river basins was quantitatively compared
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