Effects of Climate Change on Surface Runoff and Soil Moisture in the Source Region of the Yellow River

Abstract

The impact of climate change on surface runoff and soil moisture in the source region of the Yellow River is analyzed, which will provide a scientific basis for the rational use and protection of water resources in the source area. In this paper, the SWAT hydrological model was coupled with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to predict future changes in surface runoff and soil moisture in the source region of the Yellow River. The prediction of surface runoff and soil moisture in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed by a linear regression model. The SWAT model rate had a calibration period R2 of 0.876 and a validation period R2 of 0.972. The trend of surface runoff and annual mean temperature in the source region of the Yellow River from 2011 to 2022 showed an overall increasing trend, and soil moisture showed a general decreasing trend. 2011–2022 trends between surface runoff and annual mean temperature in the source region of the Yellow River showed a highly significant difference, indicating that surface runoff flow was significantly influenced by temperature. The difference between the trends in soil moisture and the annual mean temperature was highly significant. The surface runoff fluctuated greatly in different years, and the surface runoff changed greatly in different scenarios of CMIP5 (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). For all three climate change scenarios, the surface runoff displayed a downward trend. The surface runoff showed a similar uneven distribution for all scenarios on a yearly cycle. Under the three climate scenarios, the runoff was highest between May and August, with a slowly increasing trend from January to April and a slightly decreasing trend from September to December. The interannual and interannual distribution of soil water was basically consistent with the distribution of surface runoff, and there was an overall trend in the length of all soil water reduction scenarios. Surface runoff and soil moisture are and will be greatly affected by climate change (mainly temperature and precipitation). Under the three climate scenarios, the precipitation increases to some extent, but the surface runoff and soil moisture will both decrease, which may be attributed to the greater evaporation than the precipitation.