Study on Prediction Model of Grain Yield Based on Principal Component Analysis and BP Neural Network

Abstract

Taking the grain yield data from 1980 to 2012 of Jilin Province for example, this paper analyzes the main factors that influences the grain yield based on the principle component analysis method. According to these main factors, the input samples of BP neutral network are definite. Thereby, the BP neutral networks could be trained to predict. The results show that the fertilizer consumption, large cattle head number, end grain sowing area, effective irrigation area and rural per capita living space are the main effect factor on grain yield. The BP neural network was built by using it as the input samples. The number of input nodes of the network is determined. Then build the prediction model of grain production in Jilin province. The simulation results show that, the average error of prediction results of BP neural network model based on principal component analysis is 4.48%.