Study on Predicting the Price of Coconut in Tamil Nadu Market

Abstract

Aims: The study aims to comprehensively analyze coconut cultivation trends in Tamil Nadu, covering area, production, yield, and market prices. Through data analysis, it seeks to reveal historical shifts in cultivation practices. The study also strives to develop precise price forecasting models for Coimbatore and Pollachi markets, enhancing insights into agricultural dynamics and enabling accurate price predictions.
 Study Design:  Exploratory research design.
 Place and Duration of Study: The present study was conducted in the year 2023 during July and August
 Methodology: Secondary data was used for the present study.  Secondary Data on area , production and productivity of coconut in Tamil Nadu was collected from 2000 to 2022 and price of coconut from 2012 to 2023 in selected market was collected. The research utilizes Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Analysis to identify the past trends in the area, production, and productivity of coconut in Tamil Nadu. Additionally, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are employed to forecast the future trens in coconut price in Coimbatore and Pollachi market.
 Results: Area, Production and Productivity of coconut in Tamilnadu has shown a positive trend. Coconut cultivation is growing steadily with a 1.56% increase in cultivation area and a 2.089% rise in production, while productivity is also improving by 1.19% annually, indicating positive growth. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for Coconut in the Coimbatore market and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for coconut in the Pollachi market was found to provide the best fit for predicting the price of coconut in both markets.
 Conclusion: Increase in trend in area, production and productivity was observed in Tamil Nadu. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was found to provide the best fit for predicting the price of coconut in both markets. The model predicted declining price in the forthcoming months (August – September, 2023). Increased area under cultivation and increased production of coconut in all the major growing States are the major reasons for declining prices. Efforts have to be made to increase the consumption of coconut value added products to sustain the price of coconut in the coming years.